Monday, November 16, 2009

The New Silk Road - Ben Simpfendorfer

Read this book by the RBS economist.
Interesting read on the history between China and the Middle East.

The New Silk Road - The Arab World Rediscovers China
... China only joined the WTO in 2001 and grew from 300bn to a 3tn economy in a couple of years. The Arabs facing US sanctions in 2001 and redirecting investments to Asia and London whereby the listings are less onerous.

Chinese Petrodollars and the competition for oil.
... The Arab has 28% of the world oil reserves. Chinese consumption going higher cos of domestic car sales. China strategic oil reserves and the export oil factories. US and China have 27% and 9% for the global oil consumption. Saudi wants to reduce dependency on the US but also needs technology from them as well. Looking for African oil but also vulnerable to the regimes. China policy of non-intervention.

The Arab Wealth Funds and the rise of an "Islamic Corridor"
... The Arab funds have abt USD 1.4 tn. ADIA hv 800bn and smallest out of the 7 UAE countries. Saudi with abt 300bn while having a population of 20mm. KIA with abt 260bn. Investing in the Islamic corridor from the Africa through the ME and then Asia. China stk mkt from 580bn in 2001 to 2.2tn in late 2008. The SAFE and the CIC were well covered except for the Arab funds.

Syria learns from China while the Chinese goes "Global"
... Damascus is one the most ancient cities. Trade along the Silk Road dried up in 1600s after the collapse of the Timurid Empire in Central Asia. Ming Dynasty also faced attacks from the Northwest. Car convoy arrived in Syria in 2006 to open up the market. Arab economies collapsed in the 1700s bcos of the European sea powers and the switching of most Asia trades to the African Cape route. The Chinese construction companies are capable of large infrastructure project like ports, utilities and roads. Japan Korea and TW had transferred 300bn of investment into china while providing managerial expertise.
... Egypt and Syria competing for influence in the mkt. Exports to Egypt grew from 800m to 3tn between 2000 to 2006. Huawei influence in Egypt and its expertise in building a telecoms infrastructure.

Young women and the the future of the Arab world
...Young women btw 15-29 accounted for over 30% of SZ 9mm population. Extremely entrepreneurial and all over the world. Mao Zedong transformed women during the revolution bcos of their support. Joblessness in the middle east is of a concern. Wheat prices are a concern bcos the ME is a net importer. ME demographic dividend is a big potential.

The New Public Relations War : "Al Jazeera"in China
... The no of Chinese officials who can speak Arabic versus the Americans and the Europeans. Need to monitor the Arab news as well.

Arabic and the Language of Globalization - formal Arabic or fusha

Implications for the West - A new centre of gravity
... Muslims in China - the extremists are just a very small potion.
... The economic center of the world is beginning to shift from Europe and America to the Middle East and Asia.

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