Friday, November 28, 2008

Average Credit Safety of Industry Groups

High A - Telcos, Independent finance, Natural gas utilities, Beverages, High quality Electric Utilities.

Mid A - Food processing and Bottling.

Low A - Domestic Bank Holdings, Tobacco, Medium quality electic utilities, Consumer product industry, High grade diversifed Mfg/Conglomerates, Leasing, Auto Manufacturers, Chemicals, Energy.

High BBB - Natural gas pipelines.

Mid BBB - Paper/Forest products, Retail, Property and Casualty Insurance, Aerospace/Defence, Info/Data technology.

High BB - Supermarkets, Cable and Media, Vehicles, Textile/Apparels.

Mid BB - Low quality electric utilities, Gaming, Restuarants, Construction, Hotel Leisure, Low quality manufacturing.

Low BB - Airlines.

High B - Metals.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

RIP - Orienwise

China Orienwise - personal gurantee company. A case of someone expanding too fast and aggressively. In this mkt environment, this guy is going to be thrashed big time.

Headquartered in Shenzhen, China Orienwise Limited -- is a private guarantee company in China. As of August 31, 2006, the company had total assets of CNY 2.6bn (USD 329m). The company is 100% owned by the ultimate parent Credit Orienwise Group Limited, which is in turn majority owned by the founder Mr. Zhang Kai Yong through Orienwise International Holding Limited. Other strategic investors for Credit Orienwise include the Asian Development Bank, Citigroup Venture Capital International and Carlyle.

  1. 2 Nov 05 Ctiibank took stake for $25m. Shenzhen based pte financial company with assets of $210m. BOA and ADB were first two investors.

  2. 23 Mar 06 Carlyle took a stake for $25mm. Provides servies to small and SMEs. Total assets worth $187m.

  3. 18 Oct 06 Headquartered in Shenzhen, China Orienwise Limited -- is a private guarantee company in China. As of August 31, 2006, the company had total assets of CNY 2.6bn (USD 329m). The company is 100% owned by the ultimate parent Credit Orienwise Group Limited, which is in turn majority owned by the founder Mr. Zhang Kai Yong through Orienwise International Holding Limited. Other strategic investors for Credit Orienwise include the Asian Development Bank, Citigroup Venture Capital International and Carlyle. Positive rating pressure could emerge with: a significant strengthening of its franchise; establishment of a longer track record of sustained credit strength, particularly in a down-cycle; continued improvements in risk management and asset quality, and a reduction of its reliance on banks for business; and a strengthening in the regulatory environment. On the other hand, negative rating pressure could emerge due to: an inability to sustain its franchise; a marked deterioration in asset quality; a significant rise in leverage whereby (debt + guarantee) capital exceeds 7x; liquidity deteriorates significantly; and the parent takes on large additional debt.

  4. 22 Nov 06 Moody's Investor Service has today assigned a Ba3 foreign currency senior unsecured rating to the proposed USD bonds of China Orienwise. The proposed bonds will mature in 2011. However, if the company becomes a publicly listed company, it will have an option to call 35% of the bonds at a premium equal to the coupon. The bond is issued together with certain units of warrants which are not rated by Moody's.

  5. 10 Apr 07 China Orienwise Group, a Shenzhen-based financial service company, could take over Century Securities, a Guangdong-based securities brokerage dealer, for CNY 680m (USD 87.2m).

  6. 24 Sep 07 GE Commercial Finance(GE) invests USD 50m for 7.8% stake. MS as advisor.

  7. 16 Oct 07 ADB, Carlyle and Citibank to increase stake after GE's recent stake purchase. Total guarantee volume has exceed $5.9bn as of 30 Jun07.

  8. 25 May 08 Moody's Ba3 rating reflects relatively good financials; but strengths offset by short track record and high reliance on founder. In the near to medium term, the company will strengthen its existing franchise in established branches such as Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen, while continuing to expand its business in other locations such as Changsha, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, etc. It will also expand its personal guarantee business and introduce new products to meet demands of the evolving financial system in China.

  9. 5 Sep 08 China Orienwise announces investigation into allegations of fraud.

  10. 21 Oct 08 China Orienwise downgraded by Moody's to Caa1; continues review.

  11. 30 Oct 08 China Orienwise records losses of CNY 1.2bn for six months ended June 2008 China Orienwise recorded revenue of CNY 287.2m for the six months ended 30 June 2008, up from CNY 254.9m for the corresponding period for the previous year. The company recorded losses for the first six months of 2008 of CNY 1.2bn (USD 178m). This compares with a profit of CNY 152m for the first six months of 2007.
  12. Included in China Orienwise's June 30, 2008 financial statements was a provision for entrusted loans of RMB 946.7 million and for financial guarantees of RMB 456.7 million, of which RMB 90 million was specifically for suspected fraudulent activities carried out allegedly by a former general manager. As a result, China Orienwise incurred a total net loss of RMB 1.2 billion for the first six months of 2008. Furthermore, the total provisions of RMB 1.4 billion represent 5 times China Orienwise's full-year net income for 2007 and around 60% of its shareholders' equity for end-2007.

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Live within yr Means

Lehman has been the No.1 biggest company to go bankrupt. This week, I am looking at Citi going under ~ 2 trillion in assets and followed by GM and Chrysler. Obama looking to create 2.5mm jobs in 2011 in schools, infrastructure spending, alternatives energy eg solar and wind farms. Think it is time for us to reprice risk premium. I like the following article written by Goh Eng Yoew, ST Mkt correspondent.

Something good will come from these bad times. It is worth noting that during the Great Depression, formidable businesses were being established in the United States, such as Walt Disney, IBM and Hewlett-Packard. These turned into the global household names they are today. People will have to start living within their means, learn how to preserve capital and reduce debt.

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Saturday, November 22, 2008

Music ~ Somebody + Bcos I Love U

Two songs that I like quite alot - Somebody + Bcos I love u.

Sombody ~ Depeche Mode
I want somebody to share
Share the rest of my life
Share my innermost thoughts
Know my intimate details

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Friday, November 21, 2008

US pensions ~ this is a time bomb

The Wall Street Journal reported on October 30, 2008,that at the end of 2007,the combined pension-plan surplus of all the S&P 500 companies was $60 billion, but that by late September of this year it had become a $75 billion deficit.

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Structured Investment Vehicle - SIV

Structured Investment Vehicle - SIV - invented by Citi in 1988 and popular till they crashed in 08. Borrow short term at low interest and then buy longer dated securities at higher interest. Classified as structured credit product ranging from size USD1~30bn. Reinvested in ABS and corp bonds. Open ended and evergreen structure.

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Couple Jokes

Love Your Enemy

From his death bed, the husband called his wife and said, 'One month after I die I want you to marry Samy.' 'Samy! But he is your enemy!' 'Yes, I know that! I've suffered all these years so let him suffer now.'

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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Iceland - FT article .. this is sad

This is quite a sad story - good people being screwed by the govt and their banks. I was scratching my head when I was selling Kaupthing tier 1 paper and how they managed to come up with their smart investments, like buying West Ham.

Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir sported all the trappings of fully fledged international banks. They had offices around the world, slick PR, extravagant parties and huge amounts of debt. Iceland’s banks borrowed more than $250,000 for every man, US75bn of debt for 300k people. $75bn = 10X annual GDP. Coupled with the currency, savings are down 60% and cost of living up 20%. Potential loss of STG8bn for half a million savers in northern europe, esp UK. UK froze Landsbanki and one week later, Kaupthing went under. Iceland still owed UK 2.2bn, included under the IMF plan. When banks were privatized in 2002, govt sold it to a group of rich businessmen. These new shareholders used the banks to support their other businesses. For example, FL Group (which then became Stodir) – an investment company owned by the Icelandic retail entrepreneur Jon Ásgeir Johannesson – was both Glitnir’s biggest shareholder and one of its significant borrowers. Does it smell right?!!

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Sunday, November 16, 2008

Love - A market analysis

A funny article I found by ST writer : Chua Mui Hoong. Sunday Times. 16 Nov 2008
Five kinds of Men that women in their 30s can go for :
- Father of young kids
- Younger men seeking financial security
- Older Divorcees
- Married man
- Single man
Interesting perspectives which I never consider before.

Love: A market analysis - I've crunched the numbers and figured out how women in their 30s can still sell themselves in the marriage market. By Chua Mui Hoong

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Saturday, November 15, 2008

Investor Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham’s investment principles - In The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham sums up his investment philosophy by saying that an intelligent investor must be "businesslike" in approach. Investing in shares in a company is just like owning a share in a business enterprise and the investment must be approached as if one were buying a business, or a partnership in one.

There are four guiding principles for Graham:
- Know the business
- Know who runs the business
- Invest for profit
- Hv confidence

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China Stock Exchanges and Shares

The CSI 300 is a capitalization-weighted stock market index designed to replica the performance of 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. The index is compiled by the China Securities Index Company, Ltd. It has been calculated since April 8, 2005. Its value is normalized relative to a base of 1000 on December 31, 2004. S and H are those that got listed in Singapore and HKSE.

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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Credit-Crunch Villains Pass the Buck, Party On

This is a very funny and yet serious bbg article that I found. The past couple of weeks hv been a nightmare. This is really the Mother of all Financial Crisis - worse than 1929 Depression. I really wonder how long we will take to get out of this sh*t.

Credit-Crunch Villains Pass the Buck, Party On: Mark Gilbert

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The great and the good of capitalism and free markets held a requiem dinner for the global financial system at a secret hideaway this week. As the waiter decanted a fresh bottle of 1985 Chateau Margaux, the blame game began. "I blame the central banks," growled the bond trader, stabbing the air with a forkful of raw steak. "If Alan Greenspan hadn't kept interest rates so low at the start of this decade, we wouldn't be in this mess. Talk about refilling the punch bowl when the party guests are already as drunk as skunks!"

"We told you we were not in the business of identifying bubbles, let alone trying to puncture them," replied the central banker, nibbling at a lettuce leaf. "We warned you that credit spreads, emerging-market yields and volatility in stocks and bonds were all too low, and that you were under-pricing risk."

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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

RIP ~ Peace Mark

Watch-maker Peace Mark - Sincere Watches to be sold for >HKD500mm by Dec 12. Peace Mark sold to Chow Tai Fook for HKD505mm (USD65mm). Back in 2006, Peace Mark's turnover is HKD2.2bn(USD287mm) end-Mar.

  • 12Jan07-To mobilize HKD400mm for capex and acqusition out of HKD1.2bn.

  • 13Jul07-Mkt cap stands at HKD12bn.

  • 26Sep07-Peace Mark acquires 3 Swiss watch makers for an undisclosed price.

  • 08Dec07-PM to acquire Sincere for SGD530, 11% premium.

  • 05Feb08-PM signed US500mm - ABN, BNP and ING~200mm Sincere, 300mm refi.

  • 02Apr08-PM to refi loans, MQB is financial advisor.

  • 27May08-Consider acquiring watch brands in china. capex of hkd250-300mm in 08.

  • 05Jun08-PM to raise USD116 throu' BNP for debt refi and exp.

  • 23Jul08-PM to sell its 51% US distribution business. (USD196mm in cash).

  • 12Aug08-PM shares d73% on debt and CFO resigned.$150mm bridge due in Mar09. ST debt amt to USD678mm. Net debt ratio 131.3%. Mkt cap of $293mm.

  • 19Aug08-CVC buyout of PM

  • 31Aug08-PM to sell Soprod, Swisee Clockwork manufacturer. turnover of E15mm.

  • 02Sep08- More than 10 banks asked to be repaid since Aug. USD200mm new loan delayed.

  • 03Sep08-Lenders call in HKD1.216bn loan as result of mid-aug slide. Also owe a $202.2bridging loan due end sep.the company’s main banks are ABN AMRO Bank N.V., Bank of America, Bank of China, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank AG, ING Bank N.V., HSH Nordbank AG, Merrill Lynch, OCBC Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and United Overseas Bank. Lenders to the HKD 1.17bn syndicated loan include ABN AMRO, Agricultural Bank of China, Arab Bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Hong Kong, Bank of China Macau, BNP Paribas, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Taiwan Hong Kong, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, DBS Bank Hong Kong, First Commercial Bank, Fortis Bank, HSH Nordbank, ING Bank, Maybank, Mizuho Corporate Bank, Nanyang Commercial Bank, Public Bank Hong Kong, Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Shanghai Commercial Bank, Taipei Fubon Commercial Bank Hong Kong, Taiwan Business Bank, Hong Kong, Taiwan Cooperative Commercial Bank, UOB Asia Hong Kong, and Wing Hang Bank.

  • 10Sep08-Bnkea seized 3 shops in China, owed CNY27mm

  • 10Sep08-Peace Mark likely to enter provisional liquidation on back of Ferrier Hodgson report, bankers say. Review raises aises serious doubts over the company’s accounting practices. Sincere ring fenced from liquidation.

  • Similiar to "Moulin”, acollapse of the formerly HK listed eyeglass maker and distributor in 2005 after it was discovered that its audited financial statements were materially misstated. Moulin Global Eyecare Group was entered into provisional liquidation in jun 05 with the company at the time having total debts outstanding in excess of USD 320m to more than 30 creditors. Recovery is similiar to 11.7-24.3 cents on the US dollar from the liquidation of that company.

  • Peace Mark’s total outstanding debt is app HKD 4bn. However, the final amount of debts outstanding is likely to be greater given that the company also has a no of derivative transactions with Citi, Lehman, ML and UBS.As reported, Peace Mark has 63 bilateral HKD bank loans totalling HKD 1.2bn [USD 154]; 10 bilateral Chinese yuan-denominated loans; a 4-year syndicated term loan maturing in June 2011 having a total outstanding principal balance of HKD 1.17bn [USD 149.8m] to which 28 banks are creditors; and, around USD 201m left outstanding from a USD 500m secured bridge loan that the company obtained from ABN AMRO Bank, BNP Paribas and ING Bank in February this year.

  • 17Sep08-PM in asset sale. CVC, Carlyle and Candover may hv interest. Also hv attracted interest from Chow Tai Fook, with the new world development group.

  • U-RIGHT International Holdings, the Hong Kong listed men and ladies casual wear's manufacturer, could face financial difficulty similar to Peace Mark and Tack Fat Group.U-RIGHT has been actively raising funds recently. It obtained a HKD 150m syndicated loan in July this year, and is planning to raise as much as HKD 234m from issuing new shares this month, the paper added. Its share price has plunged more than 84% from its all-time high of HKD 0.089 per share to HKD 0.014 apiece before its share trading suspension.

  • 08Oct08-PM approved sale of Chinese assets to Chow Tai Fook for HKD 600mm subject to lenders' agreement. Sincere up for sale.

  • 17Oct08-Ferrier Hodgson has estimated that total claims against Peace Mark are HKD 3.316bn (exclusive of claims held by the providers of a USD 200m bridging made to Peace Mark and secured by the company’s shareholding in Sincere Watch Ltd). Thus, given the HKD 258m from the net cash proceeds coming from Chow Tai Fook’s purchase, the sale is expected to lead to an average recovery of 7.8% for Peace Mark’s financial creditors, the bankers said.

  • 24Oct08-Under Plan B, the guarantees that the Peace Mark companies provided for the syndicated loans would remain in place, but the shares of the guarantor companies would be transferred to New Flow Group.

  • 21Nov08-Completion of asset sales to Chow Tai Fook.

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Monday, November 03, 2008

Financial Scams - Enron Nov 2001 and Worldcom Jul21, 2002

I was really quite curious how these things can happen yr after yr with all these scams. Really amazed. I was selling Worldcom bonds back then. Haha.

  • Underreporting ‘line costs’ (interconnection expenses with other telecommunication companies) by capitalizing these costs on the balance sheet rather than properly expensing them.
  • Inflating revenues with bogus accounting entries from ‘corporate unallocated revenue accounts’.
Eugene Morse, an internal auditor at WorldCom reporting to Cynthia N. Cooper, uncovered approximately $3.8 billion of the fraud in June 2002 during an examination of capital expenditures.Cynthia Cooper subsequently alerted the company’s new auditors, KPMG (who had replaced Arthur Andersen, WorldCom’s external auditors during the fraud) and the chairman of the audit committee, and she has been widely credited as having uncovered the fraud at Worldcom. Shortly thereafter, the company’s audit committee and board of directors were notified of the fraud and acted swiftly: Sullivan was fired, Myers resigned, Arthur Andersen withdrew its audit opinion for 2001, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into these matters on June 26, 2002. By the end of 2003, it was estimated that the company's total assets had been inflated by around $11 billion.

On July 21, 2002, WorldCom filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest such filing in United States history at the time (since overtaken by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008). The WorldCom bankruptcy proceedings were held before U.S. Federal Bankruptcy Judge Arthur J. Gonzalez who simultaneously heard the Enron bankruptcy proceedings which were the second largest bankruptcy case resulting from one of the largest corporate fraud scandals. None of the criminal proceedings against WorldCom and its officers and agents were originated by referral from Gonzalez or Department of Justice lawyers.

WorldCom changed its name to MCI, and moved the corporate headquarters from Clinton, Mississippi to Dulles, Virginia, on April 14, 2003. Under the bankruptcy reorganization agreement, the company paid $750 million to the SEC in cash and stock in the new MCI, which was intended to be paid to wronged investors. In May 2003, the company was given a no-bid contract by the United States Department of Defense to build a cellular telephone network in Iraq. The deal has been criticized by competitors and others who cite the company's lack of experience in the area.

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